Chicagoland kicks off the second-half of 2010 season

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/06/2010 - Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, July 10. Race: LifeLock.com 400. Site: Chicagoland Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 267. Miles: 400.5. 2009 winner: Mark Martin. Television: TNT. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

After a spectacular fireworks show on and off the track and tempers flaring in the garage last Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway, it's time for the Sprint Cup Series to kick off the second half of its 36-race season this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway.

Kevin Harvick widened his points lead after an impressive win in the 400-mile race at Daytona. Harvick survived a rash of accidents, including the "big one" that involved 19 drivers, and then held off Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon in a two-lap overtime finish for his second Cup victory this season.

Chicagoland has been one of Harvick's better tracks, where he has scored six top-10 finishes, including two victories, in nine starts. He won the first two races on this one-and-a-half-mile track from 2001-02.

"We got to do some of the very first testing at Chicago, and we've always run well there," Harvick said. "Our packages have evolved over time from a setup standpoint year to year, so we always run well there and look forward to going back. I think the mile and a half tracks have been a strong point of ours this year."

He's right. Harvick has finished no worse than 11th in the four races held on mile and a half tracks so far this season -- Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte.

Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only drivers with multiple victories at Chicagoland, with Stewart winning there in 2004 and '07.

Heading into Chicagoland, Harvick holds a 212-point advantage over new second- place man Jeff Gordon, who finished third at Daytona.

Gordon currently has a 47-race winless drought, which matches his career-long stretch. He also went the same number of races without a win before his last victory came in April 2009 at Texas.

"I'm excited that we're second in points, but I'll be honest, all I look at is where we are with wins right now," Gordon said. "When you're positioned well in the Chase, like we are currently, then it comes down to wins and being seeded for when that Chase comes around.

"I think these top fives that we've had here recently build momentum to get us an opportunity to get us those wins. So that's really more what's on our mind right now. It's about what we've got to do to win a championship. I feel like we've got to get a few wins before that Chase starts."

Gordon, who won at Chicagoland in 2006, is expected to make his 600th career and consecutive start at Chicagoland. The four-time series champion made his first start in the 1992 season-finale at Atlanta, and has not missed a race since then.

While Gordon climbed to second, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. moved up two spots to 11th in the standings. Earnhardt Jr. steadily has worked his way back into the top-12 with finishes of 11th or better in the last four races, including a fourth-place run at Daytona. He is 57 points ahead of 12th-place Carl Edwards with eight races remaining before the championship Chase begins in September at New Hampshire.

"We're getting a little bit more lucky than I would like," Earnhardt Jr. said. "You don't want to make the Chase on just pure luck, because you ran well. We've been running good."

Hendrick driver Mark Martin is now outside the top-12. Martin has finished 14th or worse in the last five races, and dropped from 10th to 13th in the rankings since then. He trails Edwards by 39 points.

Martin won last year's race at Chicagoland. He led a track-record 195 laps, but had to hold off Gordon after the final restart with just two laps to go for his fourth win of the 2009 season.

One year ago, Martin trailed then 12th-place Kasey Kahne by 65 points. Martin made it into the Chase, and by virtue of his series-leading five wins, was awarded the top-seed. He finished the season second to champion Jimmie Johnson in points.

Johnson, currently third in points (-225), is tied with Denny Hamlin for most wins so far this year with five each.

This season, Johnson has checked off Bristol (March) and Sonoma, CA (June) from his list of tracks where he had yet to win. Could Chicagoland be the next one taken off the list. He sure would love to do it, particularly for crew chief Chad Knaus, who hails from nearby Rockford, IL.

"Chad has asked me since I won in California for my first race if we could win his home state so he could experience that," said Johnson, a native of El Cajon, CA. "We have been very close. I gave one up to Kyle [Busch] on a late restart a couple of years ago. Last year, we led a ton of laps, but it just didn't close at the end. Things get away from us. I feel like we've got a good chance there, and certainly hope to. It's nice to cross off these tracks that I haven't won at."

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the LifeLock.com 400.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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