A Little Warm comes up hot in Delaware

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/29/2010 - Stanton, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three months after finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm got back into action Tuesday afternoon at Delaware Park. The three-year-old colt returned to racing in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race as the 3-2 morning-line favorite.

Ridden by John Velazquez, A Little Warm ran second behind Miner's Reserve on Delaware's main track. Miner's Reserve, trained by Nick Zito and ridden by Jeremy Rose, took the four horse field up the backstretch and around the final turn.

Sent off as the 3-5 favorite, A Little Warm finally drew even with the 6-5 second choice at the top of the stretch. The favorite notched his second win of the year and the third of his career with a 2 1/4-length victory over Miner's Reserve. A Little Warm stopped the timer at 1:43.60.

There was no show wagering due to the small field. A Little Warm returned $3.20 and $2.10, Miner's Reserve paid $2.60.

"We did not feel our horse was 100 percent going into the race today," said trainer Tony Dutrow, "and for him to give us a performance like that and to fight as hard he did to beat a really nice horse, I think we have to be really happy and looking forward to his future."

Owned by Edward Evans, A Little Warm was originally considered for the Preakness Stakes on May 15. However, he was withdrawn from consideration about a week before the Triple Crown race following an unsatisfactory endoscopic examination.

A Little Warm began 2010 by winning the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes on January 9 at Gulfstream Park. He then came up second to D'Funnybone in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes at the South Florida track.

Tuesday's win put A Little Warm's career earnings at $308,880 in eight starts.

Dutrow has the colt nominated to the Barbaro Stakes for three-year-olds at Delaware Park on July 10. However, it appears A Little Warm will rejoin the top echelon of three-year-olds this summer.

"I think right now, Mr. Evans is looking at the Jim Dandy (July 31) at Saratoga for his next start," noted Dutrow.

The Jim Dandy is the traditional prep race for the Travers at Saratoga at the end of August. One day after the Jim Dandy is the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

In 2009, Rachel Alexandra won the Haskell with Summer Bird in second. Summer Bird came back to win the Travers and eventually be voted the year's champion three-year-old colt.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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